Worst Case Scenario

Worst Case Scenario focuses on a disaster at the Waketa Power Plant, which falls into chaos after a commercial airplane strikes its electrical wires and damages several buildings. Although the plant itself is fictional, the events that play out are based on realistic possibilities. Much of the characters’ energy is spent explaining the damage to the plant, brainstorming possible solutions, and dealing with the larger implications of the crisis.

Well-known examples of real-life nuclear meltdowns include past incidents at Chernobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island. However, Newman’s novel focuses primarily on the complex dangers of nuclear waste. In every nuclear power plant, fuel rods that typically contain uranium are placed within a nuclear reactor. Hundreds of these small rods are bundled together to form a fuel assembly, with a reactor core containing “between 150 and 250 fuel assemblies” in total (“What Is Nuclear Fuel?” United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission). This means that an operational reactor has tens of thousands of fuel rods simultaneously undergoing controlled nuclear fission. This process, in turn, generates power that can be harnessed in the form of nuclear energy. The rods slowly decay until they are no longer useable, at which point they are removed from the core for storage. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “typically, reactor operators change out about one-third of the reactor core (40 to 90 fuel assemblies) every 12 to 24 months” (“Nuclear Explained: The Nuclear Fuel Cycle.” U.S. Energy Information Administration). Based on this math, thousands of fuel rods, still stacked in fuel assemblies, are removed from a single nuclear power plant each year and are still radioactive.

Worst Case Scenario discusses two specific ways that this spent fuel is stored: in dry cask storage and in a spent fuel pool. The central conflict of the novel revolves around the damage to the spent fuel pool, which Ethan describes as “an enormous aboveground swimming pool filled with regular old water” (57). At the bottom of the pool, “storage racks […] hold fuel assemblies,” and he explains that “the pool is a safe storage location for the rods to cool after their immediate removal because of the water” (57). However, when the plane strikes the power plant’s electrical line and breaks apart, both the pool and the warehouse around it are damaged, causing the pool to slowly leak. Without water, the exposed rods will release radioactive material and eventually start a massive fire of a “magnitude mankind has yet to conceive of a way to put out” (58). The events of the novel unfold around this central conflict as the engineers and firefighters try to find a solution to the leaking pool. The novel itself is structured in the form of a countdown, with each chapter marking how much time is left until the calculated point at which a fire would begin. This approach is designed to raise the tension of the narrative as disaster nears.

The science behind the novel’s depiction of the deadly effects of spent fuel is largely factual, and the narrative accurately describes the two types of storage that are used to dispose of nuclear waste. According to the EIA, the spent fuel pool is the initial place of disposal for a few years until the rods are moved to dry cask storage, where they await final disposal in underground storage. However, it is also worth noting that “the United States currently has no permanent underground repository for high-level nuclear waste” (“Nuclear Explained”). Thus, when Ethan tells President Dawson that the “plant has been in operation three hundred sixty-five days a year since 1973” and that “every ounce of nuclear waste created during that time is stored on-site” (58), this is a plausible scenario that aligns with current nuclear regulations in the United States.

Understanding the science behind the central conflict is critical to grasping the high-stakes environment in which the characters operate. Although there are varying reports about the safety of the spent fuel pool and how much damage could actually be done to it, Newman identifies a very real problem within the nuclear field. Some elements of the novel lack verisimilitude, such as the inability to get an underwater welder to repair the damage or the damage that the plane causes to both the housing facility and the pool itself. However, the basic premise of the novel is largely factual. Newman therefore establishes a realistic scenario that explores the potential for worldwide ramifications, and her focus on multiple perspectives allows for a more emotion-laden exploration of individual heroism and the value of teamwork in crisis situations.