The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

Asymmetry, as discussed in The Coming Wave, refers to the unequal distribution of power and capabilities enabled by emerging technologies. Suleyman explores how advancements in fields like AI, synthetic biology, and robotics have the potential to disrupt existing power structures and empower individuals or entities with asymmetric capabilities to influence global events, posing new challenges for governance and international security. He argues that asymmetry is one of the four features that distinguishes the coming wave of technology from other waves.

Autonomy, in The Coming Wave, refers to the increasing ability of machines to operate independently of human control or intervention. Suleyman examines the implications of autonomy across various technological domains, highlighting both the potential benefits of autonomous systems and the ethical dilemmas they pose. Suleyman argues that autonomy is one of the four features that distinguishes the coming wave of technology from other waves.

“The coming wave” refers to the anticipated proliferation of transformative technologies, such as AI, synthetic biology, robotics, quantum computing, and clean energy, and their far-reaching impact on society, governance, and human civilization. Suleyman’s book explores the opportunities and challenges presented by this impending wave of innovation, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to harness its benefits while mitigating its potential risks.

Containment, as discussed in The Coming Wave, involves strategies and policies aimed at managing and mitigating the risks associated with emerging technologies, particularly those with disruptive or destructive potential. Suleyman explores the concept of containment as a means of controlling technological development to ensure its alignment with societal values and objectives while minimizing unintended consequences and harm.

The Grand Bargain refers to the implicit agreement between individuals and their governments, in which citizens relinquish certain freedoms and autonomy in exchange for security, stability, and governance. Suleyman examines how the dynamics of this bargain are evolving in the face of technological advancement, with implications for privacy, civil liberties, and the role of the state in the digital age.

Hyper-evolution denotes the rapid pace of technological advancement and innovation. Hyper-evolution is one of the four features that Suleyman claims distinguish the coming wave of technology from other waves.

The Modern Turing Test, proposed by Suleyman, refers to the challenge of assessing the intelligence and capabilities of AI systems in a manner analogous to the original Turing Test proposed by Alan Turing. This test would involve giving an AI an open-ended, ambiguous, long-term, and complex goal that would require creativity, judgment, and versatility over a long period.

The Narrow Path represents the precarious balance between embracing technological progress and mitigating its potential risks and consequences. The path is narrow because on either side of this ideal path lie highly likely and undesirable outcomes: catastrophe and dystopia. Suleyman explores the challenges of navigating this narrow path, advocating for responsible innovation, ethical governance, and proactive measures to ensure that technology serves the greater good while minimizing harm to individuals and society.

Omni-use, within the context of The Coming Wave, describes the versatility and ubiquity of emerging technologies, allowing them to be applied across diverse domains and industries. Suleyman examines the implications of omni-use technologies, highlighting their potential to reshape entire sectors of the economy, disrupt existing power structures, and raise ethical concerns related to their widespread adoption and impact. He warns that omni-use technologies are more difficult to contain than single-use technologies. Omni-use is another of the four features that Suleyman says distinguish the coming wave of technology from other waves.

Pessimism aversion, as discussed in The Coming Wave, refers to a cognitive bias or tendency to avoid negative or pessimistic outlooks, particularly regarding the consequences of technological advancement. Suleyman explores how optimism and enthusiasm for innovation can sometimes obscure the potential risks and downsides of emerging technologies, emphasizing the importance of balanced and critical perspectives in navigating the complexities of technological progress.