How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them

Noor was a high school student in Baghdad when US forces first invaded Iraq in 2003. She is one of several ordinary individuals that Walter discusses to show what it is like living right before and during a civil war.

Like many other Iraqis, Noor did not realize that the increase in religious factionalism occurring after the US invasion would lead to civil war. She recounts how other Sunni Muslims were growing increasingly concerned that the transitional government, which primarily consisted of Shia Muslims, would ignore their concerns or even retaliate due to Saddam’s mistreatment. These concerns and fears led Sunni Muslims to begin organizing themselves into different militias who were willing to fight back for political power.

Noor also describes how prior to the US invasion, no one cared about religious identities. Rather, everyone identified as Iraqi. This all changed during the post-Saddam period. As Walter underscores, political factions based on religion or some other identity that emerge in an anocracy are especially dangerous to a country’s political stability.

Adam Fox was the leader of an attempted kidnapping and assassination plot of Gretchen Whitmer, a Democratic governor of Michigan, in 2020. Throughout his adulthood, Fox struggled to find well-paying jobs and maintain successful personal relationships. He grew increasingly angry and blamed the Democratic party for his situation. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Fox attempted to join militias, but he was kicked out for being too radical.

During the pandemic, he grew increasingly frustrated with Governor Whitmer’s stay-at-home orders and lockdowns. He was even among a group of individuals who occupied the House floor of the Michigan state capitol after a protest. Fox eventually formed his own militia group. The group considered a number of different violent strategies to show their displeasure at the government, including taking lawmakers as hostages and executing them and locking the doors of the state capitol building and setting it on fire. They eventually landed on trying to kidnap and assassinate Governor Whitmer.

The FBI prevented this plot from taking place. A jury convicted Fox of this crime in 2020. Walter uses Fox’s plot to illustrate how the feelings of hopelessness tied with frustrations over no longer being the dominant group in power can push some people to want civil wars.

Berina and Daris are Bosnians who lived through the run-up to and start of the civil war. They lived in Bosnia’s capital, Sarajevo. Both were highly educated. Prior to the start of the civil war, they had friends who identified as Serbs, Croats, and Muslims. All of these friendships ended, however, as ethnic entrepreneurs from all three groups used fearmongering and violent rhetoric to create fault lines between the different identities. Both Berina and Daris emphasize how they did not recognize the signs of political instability until civil war broke out.

Matalam inherited the title of chief or datu from his father, who was the region’s sultan. When the Philippines was still a US colony, Matalam served in two leadership positions: He was the leader of his local community, and he was a representative to the national government. Walter notes that Matalam was one of the first local leaders to work “with colonial administrators rather than against them” (59).

After the Philippines gained independence, Matalam became governor of Cotabato, one of the largest administrative centers in the region. Part of his rise to power was due to his willingness to work with the national government in Manila to settle Catholics on agricultural land previously owned by Muslims. Despite his compliance with this policy, Muslims and Catholics alike loved Matalam. Muslims considered Matalam a religious leader, a fair judge of local disputes, and a hero since he fought in World War II. Catholics loved him because he united Catholics and Muslims in the area, bringing peace.

Matalam’s political power came to a screeching halt, however, when Ferdinand Marcos became president in 1965. Marcos replaced government officials, including Matalam, with his loyal supporters. The government and Matalam’s former colleagues also insulted Matalam. Due to his loss of status, Matalam created the Muslim Independence Movement in 1968, which kick-started the civil war in the Philippines. Matalam soon left this group and retired to his farm. 

Milošević (1941-2006) was a Communist party leader in Serbia at the time of Josip Tito’s death. He capitalized on the ethnic divisions that boiled over after Tito’s death. He promised to help Serbs living in Kosovo resist Albanian rule. Kosovo, which had been the seat of the Serbian Kingdom during the Middle Ages, was incredibly important to Serbs. Many Serbs viewed Kosovo as their homeland. Milošević gained the support of Serbian citizens by emphasizing ethnic identity (i.e., Serbian identity) over political ideology (i.e., communism).

Over several years, he took control of key institutions in Serbia, including the government, courts, police, and media. Walter notes that “Milošević envisioned a Yugoslavia in which Serbs—who were a majority after all—would finally have the representation and influence they deserved” (32). He was president of Serbia between 1989 and 2000. As president, Milošević committed war crimes, earning the epithet “Butcher of the Balkans.”

After his defeat in 2000, he was arrested and extradited by the Yugoslav government to The Hague, Netherlands, to stand trial for war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity. His poor health delayed his trial numerous times. Milošević died in prison in 2006.